2007
Last week we went 7 up, 6 down and 2 even last week. While it is easy to talk about our winners, we hate to lose money on any stock, so we tend to focus on our "Dogs" rather than our winners like RITT +27%, or AVSO.ob +35%. DWCH is still our biggest dog followed by LINN.ob,INFT, MOBI, PARL, MIVA and ARIS.ob. Of these, only the first 2 have losses of more than 5%. For the week and 2007, year-to-date, our model portfolio is down .4%.
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Down $.04 to $11.25 last week. Some potential good news about a new product application and they are presenting at the Needham conference on January 9th. Maybe we will get some positive news and blow away the shorts that have been messing around with our investment. Up 6% so far. HOLD.
QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.69 (was $13.73 and $11.86). Closed at $8.04, down $.35. Trading at only 59% of valuation. No reason for the drop, other than maybe some people taking their capital gains in 2007. Has $1.03 in cash also. Up 16% so far. HOLD.
PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)--Closed at $20.22, up $.08. Now up 5%. BUY.
MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.52 (was $7.38 and $9.10)). MIVA closed at $3.65, up $.27. Announced a new deal with Google that drove the price up to $4.67 at one point last week, but couldn't stay near that level. Now down "only" 4%. HOLD.
DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, NEW Valuation $7.50 (was $7.63, $9.31)). Closed at $2.60, unchanged for the week, now down 29%. HOLD.
INFT-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.95 (was $6.86)). Up $.13 to $3.89. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50. Now down 5%. BUY.
MOBI-(Buy price $7.08, Valuation $12.69). Up $.08 to $6.73. No news. Down 5%. BUY.
RITT-(Buy price $1.00, Valuation $2.69). Closed down $.15 at $1.27 last week. Looks like some profit taking (again, maybe people who held the stock to avoid taxes in 2006 waited to sell until this week). Up 27%. HOLD.
PARL-(Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77). PARL closed at $6.33, up $.76 last week. Got up to $6.75 last week. There seems to be too many catalysts for this to stay down for long. Down 5%. This remains a BUY.
OB-abies
ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.28 (was $5.28, $5.21)). Closed at $2.05, up $.05 last week. This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point. Now down .5% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap.
Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.62 (was $.66 and before that-$.79)). Closed at $.30, down $.03 last week. Still trading at only 48% of our current valuation. Down 17%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).
OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.54 and 2.88)). Closed at $1.45, unchanged. Has $.44 in cash per share also. OPTIO announced a share buy-back plan last week of $2 million. We are generally not in favor of tech companies using cash to buy their shares, but at least it is not that much and will give some support to the stock price, hopefully. 16% gain so far. HOLD.
AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $2.69 (was $3.36, $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.60, up $.10. Now up 35%. Some product related news last week. HOLD.
CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.13 (Was $1.05, $.82)). Ask price dropped $.02 to $.30. Closed at $.30. Cash is (was) $.24 per share. Two weeks ago CTI announced the purchase of Ryder Systems LTD. an international provider of electronic and on-line billing solutions and developer of VoIP business applications. Last week they filed an 8-K, with details of the financing they got to fund the $11 million purchase--but still no details of what they bought. Now up 11% so far (based on ask price). HOLD until we see what we just bought.
IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation--over $3.00). Closed down $.07 at $2.26, up 18% to date. No news on the "take-over", or the pay-off of their bank debt which was supposed to happen by the end of the year. HOLD.
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
SPNC-(Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20). Down $.04 to $11.25 last week. Some potential good news about a new product application and they are presenting at the Needham conference on January 9th. Maybe we will get some positive news and blow away the shorts that have been messing around with our investment. Up 6% so far. HOLD.
QADI-(Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.69 (was $13.73 and $11.86). Closed at $8.04, down $.35. Trading at only 59% of valuation. No reason for the drop, other than maybe some people taking their capital gains in 2007. Has $1.03 in cash also. Up 16% so far. HOLD.
PDLI-(Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30)--Closed at $20.22, up $.08. Now up 5%. BUY.
MIVA-(Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.52 (was $7.38 and $9.10)). MIVA closed at $3.65, up $.27. Announced a new deal with Google that drove the price up to $4.67 at one point last week, but couldn't stay near that level. Now down "only" 4%. HOLD.
DWCH-(Buy price $3.66, NEW Valuation $7.50 (was $7.63, $9.31)). Closed at $2.60, unchanged for the week, now down 29%. HOLD.
INFT-(Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.95 (was $6.86)). Up $.13 to $3.89. Still has $2.52 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50. Now down 5%. BUY.
MOBI-(Buy price $7.08, Valuation $12.69). Up $.08 to $6.73. No news. Down 5%. BUY.
RITT-(Buy price $1.00, Valuation $2.69). Closed down $.15 at $1.27 last week. Looks like some profit taking (again, maybe people who held the stock to avoid taxes in 2006 waited to sell until this week). Up 27%. HOLD.
PARL-(Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77). PARL closed at $6.33, up $.76 last week. Got up to $6.75 last week. There seems to be too many catalysts for this to stay down for long. Down 5%. This remains a BUY.
OB-abies
ARIS.ob-(Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.28 (was $5.28, $5.21)). Closed at $2.05, up $.05 last week. This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point. Now down .5% so far. BUY if you can find some shares. Huge valuation gap.
Linn.ob-(Buy price $.36, Valuation $.62 (was $.66 and before that-$.79)). Closed at $.30, down $.03 last week. Still trading at only 48% of our current valuation. Down 17%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).
OPTO.ob-(Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.54 and 2.88)). Closed at $1.45, unchanged. Has $.44 in cash per share also. OPTIO announced a share buy-back plan last week of $2 million. We are generally not in favor of tech companies using cash to buy their shares, but at least it is not that much and will give some support to the stock price, hopefully. 16% gain so far. HOLD.
AVSO.ob-(Buy price $1.19, Valuation $2.69 (was $3.36, $3.81)). Stock closed at $1.60, up $.10. Now up 35%. Some product related news last week. HOLD.
CTIG.ob-(Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.13 (Was $1.05, $.82)). Ask price dropped $.02 to $.30. Closed at $.30. Cash is (was) $.24 per share. Two weeks ago CTI announced the purchase of Ryder Systems LTD. an international provider of electronic and on-line billing solutions and developer of VoIP business applications. Last week they filed an 8-K, with details of the financing they got to fund the $11 million purchase--but still no details of what they bought. Now up 11% so far (based on ask price). HOLD until we see what we just bought.
IYXI.ob-(Buy price $1.91, Valuation--over $3.00). Closed down $.07 at $2.26, up 18% to date. No news on the "take-over", or the pay-off of their bank debt which was supposed to happen by the end of the year. HOLD.
posted by Cheap Stock Investor | 7:21 AM
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